ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation
Thai commercial counsellors from 58 posts in 44 countries foresee negative export growth for Thai shipments this year, due to uncontrollable external factors, weakening economic growth in many emerging markets, and the fact that some Thai businesses have invested in overseas manufacturing operations, resulting in lower shipment value from the Kingdom.
Malee Choklumlerd, director-general of the International Trade Promotion Department, said yesterday that despite the gloomy outlook for this year, the government would work more closely with exporters and trade officials with a view to deeper penetration of each foreign market.
“We will no longer [mainly] drive the export trade in goods, but will push both related service businesses and investment, with a view to generating sustainable income” she said.
For this year, the ministry agrees with the private sector that overall export growth is now likely be in a range of minus 2 per cent to plus 2 per cent, resulting in full-year shipments worth between US$210 billion (Bt7.28 trillion) and $218 billion, she added.
Exports to Asean are expected to slow from 7.4-per-cent growth last year to a contraction of 0.8 per cent, with shipment growth to the United States falling from 5 per cent to 1 per cent, exports to the European Union dropping from 1 per cent to between zero and 1 per cent, and sales to Japan from 1-per-cent expansion in 2015 to flat growth this year.
Commerce Minister Apiradi Tantraporn said the Commerce Ministry, trade officials and private enterprises would this Friday map out export targets for next year.
Under the new export promotion plan, the ministry will focus on driving exports of services and goods in specialty market segments, including the ageing group, pet lovers, baby boomers, Hispanics, halal items, the super-rich, and online trading.
Overseas shipments will be promoted in accordance with the “Thailand 4.0” policy, with the emphasis on value-added and innovative products and services.
Ponpimon Petcharakul, Thai commercial counsellor in Hanoi, who represents the Asean market, said Thai exports to Asean would face a year-on-year decline of 0.8 per cent to $54.7 billion in 2016, as the regional grouping was largely comprised of production-based countries that were experiencing sluggish economic growth.
The export sectors most affected and facing a contraction in terms of Asean sales are garments and agricultural products, while some Thai enterprises have expanded their manufacturing to neighbouring countries, which also contributes to lower shipment value from the Kingdom, the counsellor added.
Next year, however, exports to Asean are projected to return to positive territory, expanding 2.5 per cent to $56.05 billion.
Napadol Thongmee, Thai commercial consul in New York, said export growth to the US would slow from 5 per cent last year to 1 per cent this year, despite the US economic recovery and upcoming presidential election, as people still have weak spending confidence.
For next year, exports to the US are projected to grow by 3 per cent, with sectors that are expected to exceed this level of performance being fishery products – following Thailand’s upgrade to the Tier-2 Watch List under the US “Trafficking in Persons Report” – canned fruits, vehicles and parts, and machinery.
Supawadee Yamgamol, Thai commercial counsellor in London, said Thai exports to the EU should grow 1 per cent this year to $22.16 billion, against a contraction of 2.4 per cent last year, due to the weakening of the pound following the country’s Brexit vote, which had resulted in higher prices for Thai goods and services sold to the area.
Chitvipa Sukpituksakul, Thai commercial counsellor in Osaka, said exports to Japan were now expected to post flat growth this year, compared to the previous target of 1-per-cent expansion, due to the country’s economic slowdown.
However, Thai exports next year are forecast to grow 1 per cent as a result of the Japanese government’s stimulus package, she said.