ECONOMY

All posts tagged ECONOMY

Fixing of structural issues urged

Published October 1, 2016 by SoClaimon

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Fixing-of-structural-issues-urged-30294658.html

ECONOMY

Workers are seen through protective tarpaulins while working at the construction site of a new condominium building in a business district of Bangkok. According to the Bank of Thailand, the country’s economy has the potential to grow by 4.55.5 per cent a

Workers are seen through protective tarpaulins while working at the construction site of a new condominium building in a business district of Bangkok. According to the Bank of Thailand, the country’s economy has the potential to grow by 4.55.5 per cent a

THE ECONOMY has the potential to grow by 4.5-5.5 per cent a year if the country addresses hindering structural issues, said Bank of Thailand Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob.

While Veerathai is confident growth in gross domestic product will surpass 3.5 per cent per annum, he said the economic growth rate must exceed the population growth rate to ensure that everyone benefits from the expansion.

“In the present context, a growth rate of 4.5-5.5 per cent is suitable for Thailand. The rate is achievable if we seriously deal with structural issues,” he said. “We need to speed up the economic restructuring to ensure a sustainable growth path.”

First of all, Thailand’s manufacturers and their supply chains need to embrace more technology, he said.

Thailand recently introduced new measures in a bid to ensure greater volume of value-added products. It is doing that through initiatives to promote research and development.

The Board of Investment has also changed its focus, basing its incentive scheme on innovative investment rather than factory locations. A new growth path has been drawn up, the so-called S-curve, to promote investment in 10 targeted industries. More sophisticated products are also the target of the Eastern Economic Corridor.

Veerathai also believes it is highly possible to boost the agricultural sector’s productivity. This requires more skilled labour, which is a pressing issue given that the country’s working-age population will be the first in the region to post a decrease. To address this, education should be the key agenda.

Meanwhile, a regulatory framework must be adjusted in response to the new growth agenda. For example, rules must be relaxed to draw more foreign experts.

Veerathai said that while the fragile global-demand recovery posed a big challenge, internally unemployment could spike because of the adoption of technology in the production process. For now, some companies have cut overtime for workers, though mass layoffs are not an issue.

The economy could benefit from an increase in the contribution from the service sector, particularly from e-commerce and tourism. Thanks to shrinking imports, the current-account surplus, which was 8.5 per cent of GDP in 2015, tends to stay high.

“This will continue for a while,” Veerathai said.

He added that private investment would recover only gradually. Some industries like telecommunications get a boost from investment in fourth-generation wireless and new technology. Huge investment has also been witnessed in the renewable-energy sector. However, growth in sectors with excess supply will be dependent on the global condition.

“The past boom times won’t return. The automobile sector, for instance, still invests but not as much as in the past. New investment is geared towards efficiency and new technology,” he said.

Advertisements

Thai GDP expands 3.5% in Q2

Published August 16, 2016 by SoClaimon

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Thai-GDP-expands-3-5-in-Q2-30292987.html

ECONOMY

Porametee Vimolsiri, left, secretary-general of the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), at the press conference today.

Porametee Vimolsiri, left, secretary-general of the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), at the press conference today.

The Thai economy in the second quarter expanded by 3.5 per cent, convincing the national think tank that the full-year economic growth would reach 3-3.5 per cent.

The figures released by the Office of National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) showed that that the second-quarter economy expanded by 0.8 per cent from the first quarter, boosting the first-half growth rate to 3.4 per cent.

The growth rate in the first quarter was 3.2 per cent compared to the same period a year earlier.

An improvement in the agricultural sector raised farm income by 3.7 per cent in the second quarter – the first increase in ten quarters, said NESDB Secretary-General Porametee Vimolsiri at the press conference today.

In the second quarter, the economy was driven exports of services and public investment, while merchandise exports continued to contract. The hotel and restaurant as well as construction sectors continued to grow at high rates, while the agricultural output and prices improved.

While household consumption expanded by 3.8 per cent year on year, the number of international visitors increased by 8.2 per cent. Tourism receipts rose by 14.7 per cent. NESDB remains confident that at the end of this year, the arrival figures would reach the target of 33 million.

For the full year, the think tank pinned hopes on the expansion of government expenditure, additional stimulus packages, and improvement in farm income. Headwinds include merchandise exports which could contract 1.9 per cent on year, while private consumption and total investment should expand by only 2.7 per cent and 3.3 per cent, respectively. While inflation is expected to stay between 0.1 – 0.6 per cent, the current account surplus is forecasted to reach 9.8 per cent of GDP.

Brexit crisis challenges IMF’s Lagarde anew

Published August 16, 2016 by SoClaimon

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Brexit-crisis-challenges-IMFs-Lagarde-anew-30290096.html

ECONOMY

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks during an interview at the IMF headquarters in Washington./AFP

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde speaks during an interview at the IMF headquarters in Washington./AFP

WASHINGTON – International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde says that Britain’s vote to quit the European Union has injected significant uncertainty into the global economy but is nevertheless unlikely to cause a world recession.

But in an exclusive interview with AFP, she also said that Brexit underscores the need for the EU to better explain how it benefits Europeans, amid “disenchantment” with the institution.

And she said that Britain’s move to cut corporate taxes to counter the expected economic fallout from Brexit was just a “race to the bottom” that could hurt everyone.

Two weeks after the British referendum on cutting its EU ties, Lagarde, speaking in her Washington offices at the launch of her second five year term as IMF managing director, called the event a “major downside risk” for the world.

We don’t think that a global recession is very likely. The immediate effects will be on the UK,” with some spillover into the euro area, she said.

Yet the longer the withdrawal process remains unclear, the worse the effects could be.

“The key word about this Brexit affair is uncertainty and the longer the uncertainty, the higher the risk,” she said.

“The sooner they can resolve their timeline and the terms of their departure the better for all. It needs to be predictable, as soon as possible.”

Still optimistic

Lagarde, who as IMF managing director has already endured five years of grinding turmoil in Europe, said she remained positive over the outcome.

“My optimistic approach of life tells me that Brexit could be a catalyst that could push the EU to deepen its economic integration.”

Lagarde, 60, presided over possibly one of the most challenging periods for the global crisis lender, dealing with the Fund’s largest ever rescue operation, for Greece, and simultaneous bailouts of three other eurozone countries: Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus.

It made the IMF a central player in saving the euro area itself, a job still incomplete and with plenty of perils ahead.

Even so, Lagarde, who was France’s finance minister before moving to the IMF in July 2011, has signed on for another term, embracing the challenges ahead, including proving that the Fund is more attentive to those who suffer from its policies.

She admitted that the bailout of Greece, now in its third rescue program after the first two failed, has made the IMF a “convenient scapegoat” for the ongoing crisis.

The Fund is accused of worsening the country’s troubles by insisting on fiscal consolidation — deep government spending cuts and austerity reforms.

With the Greek economy still contracting this year, she said the Fund has to examine whether or not its demands were overly excessive.

Yet a reassessment would not radically change the IMF’s key job, which sees it rescuing governments that have run aground financially but only in exchange for reforms designed to make them stronger in the future.

“In every story, there has to be a bad cop, but I just hope that this bad cop has also a human dimension,” she said.

Yet, as the march of globalisation takes a toll on the most vulnerable people, the IMF needs to take account of that, she said.

“Globalization has done a lot of good and has lifted a lot of people out of poverty. But equally it has produced some losers.”

“The losers have to be helped and the IMF will continue to pay more attention to issues like excessive inequalities, women’s empowerment, climate change, and corruption, in order to produce a decent globalisation, one that not only increases the overall GDP but that also looks after those who are at risk of losing.”

“That’s how I want to see the IMF evolve in the next five years.”

EU needs to work harder

As for Europe, Lagarde had shown dismay before the June 23 referendum over the possibility of Britain breaking away. It just shows that the European Union must work harder to prove itself, she said.

“The EU has to do a lot more to explain what it does, what it means for people, what the cost/benefits are in a much more transparent manner.”

“The overall European architecture is complicated and any means to clarify and explain it would be critical.”

“At the same time, member states should avoid blaming the EU for everything that goes wrong. I’ve seen it myself and I might have been guilty of doing it too.”

’No’ to a French political future

Once seen as a rising star in French politics, Lagarde was asked if she considers returning to the political arena in her home country.

“I hope that where I am today, I am useful to my country as well. Often my friends in France or people I pass on the streets of France tell me they are happy, that they are proud that I am where I am,” she said.

“But a strong desire to, so to speak, return to politics? No, certainly not.”

Some of her comments

On Brexit:

“The key word about this Brexit affair is uncertainty and the longer the uncertainty, the higher the risk.”

“We certainly hope that all parties, the UK as well as the European Union players, will decide to reduce and eliminate that uncertainty by giving predictability about the timeline, how long will it take? When will it start?”

On Britain’s move to cut corporate taxes to ease the impact of Brexit:

“The problem with races to the bottom is that everybody ends up at the bottom. It would be much better to avoid that competitive race in terms of corporate tax.”

On the European Union’s future:

“My optimistic approach to life tells me that Brexit could also be a catalyst that could push the EU to deepen its economic integration and deliver results for the Europeans.”

“The EU has to do a lot more to explain what it does, what it means for people…. At the same time, member states should avoid blaming the EU for everything that goes wrong. I’ve seen it myself and I might have been guilty of doing it too.”

On globalisation — what the world’s financial ’bad cop’ IMF can do:

“Globalisation has done a lot of good and has lifted many people out of poverty but equally it has produced some losers, people whose job has been lost to a cheaper supply chain.”

“The losers have to be helped and the IMF will continue to pay more attention to issues like excessive inequalities, women’s empowerment, climate change, and corruption, in order to produce a decent globalisation, one that not only increases the overall GDP but that also looks after those who are at risk of losing.”

On the IMF’s reticence to join Greece’s third bailout programme:

“The IMF is a convenient scapegoat in Greece. We would financially engage if under a reasonable hypothesis of growth, there are serious reforms implemented, and if we conclude that the debt is sustainable. But there are other options and ’no money’ from the IMF does not necessarily mean a bad economic outcome for Greece.”

On Hillary Clinton’s aspirations to become the first female US president

“A woman at the White House? Hey, why not?”

– AFP

HSBC lowers Thai GDP growth forecasts

Published August 16, 2016 by SoClaimon

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/HSBC-lowers-Thai-GDP-growth-forecasts-30289924.html

ECONOMY

Workers install portions of the exterior of a new condiminium building in central Bangkok./EPA

Workers install portions of the exterior of a new condiminium building in central Bangkok./EPA

HSBC lowers growth forecasts for Thailand to 2.8 per cent for both 2016 and 2017, from 3.0 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively, due to lingering troubles at home and additional headwinds to be introduced by Brexit.

In “Global Economics Quarterly: UK’s revolt, global jolt”, HSBC Thailand economist Nalin Chutchotitham said Thailand’s economy continues its moderate but uneven growth – tourism and fiscal spending continue to expand well, but private investment, private consumption, and exports are still struggling. Thailand’s exports and private investment are both likely to grow at a slower pace than previously forecast. Recent data also showed credit growth slowing, as well as weaker business and consumer confidence.

Though the Bank of Thailand repetitively said further rate cuts may have little impact on growth, given weak confidence and currently limited structural changes, HSBC considers that the weaker external environment now warrants pre-emptive policy action. It expects the central bank to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent at the meeting in September and keep the rate unchanged until the end of 2017.

“An aggressive move is not likely at this juncture because the BOT would most likely want more time to assess the impact of the “Brexit” vote and other economies’ policy responses. Furthermore, monetary conditions remain accommodative, so the policy easing will be mainly a symbolic and a pre-emptive move,” Nalin said.

In a research note on June 30, United Overseas Bank also expected the Thai central bank to stay pat at the August meeting. Further monetary policy easing would provide limited support to the Thai economy as the sub-par economic growth was partly due to global and domestic structural problems.

The bank expected the baht to depreciate against US dollar due to uncertainties in the global financial market. The baht could end the year at Bt36.5 per dollar from around Bt35.3 at present.

HSBC quarterly report highlighted that global policy uncertainty would stay high after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. Higher risks will weigh on growth via delayed investment and weaker employment. The western consumer still seems to be the only engine running at full throttle but for the consumer story to be sustainable once the oil boost fades, the gains will have to come from higher employment, stronger productivity and improved wage growth. Evidence of this is still scant and with inflation for now continuing to surprise on the downside, further stimulus is likely in some countries.

“The UK’s revolt against the status quo shows that populist opposition to established politicians and institutions is capable of executing significant change. So one of the implications of the Brexit vote is that markets, companies and consumers will likely attach a much higher degree of uncertainty to other looming political events, be it the Italian referendum on constitutional change in October or the US presidential election in November,” the report said.

UTCC predicts lower Thai growth after Brexit vote

Published August 15, 2016 by SoClaimon

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/UTCC-predicts-lower-Thai-growth-after-Brexit-vote-30289514.html

ECONOMY

THAILAND’S gross domestic product could expand by as little as 2.7-3.2 per cent this year instead of the forecast 3-3.5 per cent because of the effect of last week’s “Brexit” vote, mainly on the export and tourism sectors, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

“Although the Thai economy still has strength, the gloomy global economic growth will affect Thai trade, and tourism, in some ways,” Thanavath Phonvichai, director of the university’s Economic and Business Forecasting Centre, said yesterday.

The poor picture was seconded by the Thai National Shippers Council, which sees exports suffering a 2-per-cent decline instead of the expected flat growth this year because of British voters’ decision in a referendum to leave the European Union.

For this year, the government’s investment programme will be a key economic engine, with an expected Bt400 billion to be injected into the economy in the second half.

The centre predicts that Thailand will face an economic loss of Bt44.85 billion from the Brexit vote’s impact, which will cause GDP growth to slow by 0.5 percentage point.

Of the Bt44.85 billion, Bt24.85 billion (US$700 million) would come from the drop in exports, Bt10 billion from lower tourism revenue and Bt10 billion from slowing domestic spending as consumers fret over future growth.

Because of the uncertainties arising from the referendum result, 120,000 European travellers, including from the United Kingdom, to Thailand will disappear, while 80,000 travellers from other foreign countries will be missed.

Foreign arrivals will reach only 33.3 million instead of 33.5 million this year. This will cause a loss of Bt10 billion in the tourism industry.

The centre also predicted that exports to the EU including the UK would decline by Bt14.2 billion, and to other countries by Bt10.65 billion.

Thanavath said that with the impact from the reduced trading with the UK, the EU and other markets, Thai exports would face a contraction of 1-2 per cent this year, down from the previous growth projection of zero to 1 per cent.

Lower exports will be the result mainly of the depreciation of the pound and the euro against the baht and the US dollar, while EU and UK buyers will have reduced purchasing power.

The university’s survey of businesses found that they had high anxiety over the long-term impact of the Brexit decision, as it could trigger global economic stagnation.

Most enterprises were concerned about higher debt.

Enterprises in the export sector were afraid that direct investment from the EU and UK to Thailand would soften, while domestic traders were scared that their debt would rise because of lower profit and liquidity.

Enterprises in the tourism industry were fearful that their profit would drop because of the lower number of EU and UK travellers to Thailand.

Nopporn Thepsithar, chairman of the Thai National Shippers Council, said the Brexit vote would weaken the global economy and trading worldwide.

To minimise the damage in the future, Thailand should urgently study the possibility of launching talks with the UK on a bilateral free-trade agreement as well as resume FTA negotiations with the EU itself, he said.

Policy rate unchanged as BOT prepares for new risks

Published August 15, 2016 by SoClaimon

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Policy-rate-unchanged-as-BOT-prepares-for-new-risk-30288814.html

ECONOMY

Jaturong Jantarangs, secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

Jaturong Jantarangs, secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

The Bank of Thailand decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at today’s meeting, apparently to save ammunition for new risks including the Brexit referendum.

“The committee saw merit in preserving policy space given that the Thai economy would still be facing risks going forward, such as the fragile global economic recovery, monetary policy divergence among major advanced economies, the result of the EU Referendum in the UK (Brexit) and financial stability concerns in China,” said Jaturong Jantarangs, secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

The committee voted unanimously to maintain the policy rate at 1.50 per cent. One of seven MPC members was absent from the meeting.

Going forward, he added, the committee viewed that monetary policy should remain accommodative, and stands ready to utilise an appropriate mix of available policy tools in order to ensure that monetary conditions are conducive to the economic recovery, while ensuring financial stability.

In deliberating monetary policy, the committee judged that the economy would continue to recover, and inflation would return to the target band within the latter half of the year as previously expected.

The Thai economy continued to recover on the back of public expenditure and broad-based improvement in the tourism sector, while private consumption expanded as anticipated. However, expansion in private investment remained low, and exports still contracted in tandem with other Asian economies which were weaker than expected. Offsetting weak exports are domestic demand and the tourism sector. Persisting downside risks include weak demand from trade partners and private sector’s fragile confidence.

Jaturong noted that corporate financing and household credits continued to expand, although certain business sectors faced limitations in obtaining credits. Meanwhile, financial stability risks from the prolonged low interest rate environment, including search-for-yield behaviour, continued to warrant close monitoring.

ADB vows rise in loans to Myanmar

Published June 19, 2016 by SoClaimon

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/ADB-vows-rise-in-loans-to-Myanmar-30288349.html

ECONOMY

ADB President Takehiko Nakao at the press conference./EPA

ADB President Takehiko Nakao at the press conference./EPA

YANGON – Asian Development Bank (ADB) aims to lend at least US$350 million (Bt12.3 billion) a year to Myanmar during 2017-2022, targeting to finance government and privately-owned projects mainly to improve the country’s infrastructure and create jobs.

At the press conference on Wednesday afternoon, ADB President Takehiko Nakao said that the bank would scale up lending to both the government and private sector.

“We are also thinking of a higher number for lending. This $350 million is only for the concessional lending to the government. We are also supporting the private sector. We are also thinking of expanding our lending to the commercial banking sector,” he said.

“The $350 million sum is just our baseline target of concessional lending (to the government). We can consider raising the amount. That number can be even larger if we are successful.”

Completing his 3-day visit to Myanmar, Nakao said lending to the private sector would depend on negotiations. Borrowers will shoulder a slightly higher interest rate than the government. Loans to the private sector could reach $250 million per year.

Since 2013 until 2015, the bank has loaned nearly $1 billion to Myanmar.

Nakao said that ADB is currently working with the Myanmar government on a new country partnership strategy (2017-2021) to support sustainable inclusive growth. The new five-year strategy will prioritise three key sectors – infrastructure, education, and rural and agricultural development.

As part of the strategy, ADB will support road connectivity, transport, energy, power generation and transmission, agriculture and irrigation, telecommunications, energy sector, urban infrastructure including water supply and sanitation, curriculum reforms in secondary education, health projects to address HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other communicable diseases, climate resilience, and private sector initiatives. Priority is placed on strengthening business regulations, improving access to finance, and promoting public-private partnerships.

“A strong focus on structural reforms in key areas is also critical to the country’s development. Further improvement of the business environment is essential to attract foreign direct investment, which will boost financial resources as well as transfer of knowledge and technology,” he said.

Yet, he said the government should ensure that no foreign investor violated international labour standards, particularly in the area of child and forced labour. He also urged the government pay attention to the safety of workers, complaints-receiving mechanisms and corruption.

Starting from next year, ADB would allocate $5 million per year to technical assistance for capacity building.

Nakao also sees the possibility that Myanmar would receive some forms of co-financing from other development lenders such as World Bank and Asia Infrastructure Improvement Bank (AIIB). ADB this month joined hand with AIIB for a $100 million loan for a highway project in Pakistan.

“AIIB can play a role as China has been important to Asean for some projects. But Myanmar is also close to India and Southeast Asian countries. So I do not think Myanmar will entirely lean on AIIB. ADB will continue to play a very important role in this country.”

On Wednesday, Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), the US government’s development finance institution, launched operations in Myanmar with a US$250 million loan to Yangon-based Apollo Towers Myanmar Limited, which is focused on the construction and maintenance of telecommunications towers.

Nakao noted that Myanmar needed a good strategy for future growth, saying good policies would speed up development pace.

“Every country needs a certain policy or strategy or planning for the future_ what kind of country they want to be, what kind of investment they will make, what kind of education they would like to strengthen, etc. So they need a strategy which should be flexible and realistic,” he said.

The government is urged to improve infrastructure, mobilise resources, raise revenue by strengthening the tax system, approve projects quickly without causing any trouble and risk to the government, and work more with development partners. Infrastructure and peace building are the key challenges to Myanmar’s growth, he said. But he admitted that there is no single solution.

“Myanmar is very important to the international community. It is also important for the prosperity of Asia. If Myanmar becomes a peaceful and stable country, it will positively impact on Aseancountries. In this regard, Myanmar is so important.”

Asia embarks on structural reforms

Published May 17, 2016 by SoClaimon

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Asia-embarks-on-structural-reforms-30285362.html

ECONOMY

pic

WITH THE COLLAPSE in commodity prices and growing global financial-market volatility, most Asian countries are being forced to rely more on domestic demand and undertake drastic economic restructuring to strengthen growth.

Indonesia has embarked on fiscal reform to ensure that its money is spent on productive industries rather than continuing to support a fuel subsidy.

At the annual meeting of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Bambang PS Brodjonegoro, the finance minister of Indonesia, said his country was moving away from the unproductive petrol subsidy to providing more productive infrastructure and social protection.

“For the remaining subsidies, we are working to ensure they are better targeted to the poor and the needy. The government has also delivered a series of deregulation packages,” he said.

There are now 12 structural reform packages being implemented, all directed at maintaining purchasing power to boost consumption and improving the business climate to promote investment.

The government is also working closely with the central bank to ensure that monetary policy will be set in line with the fiscal and structural reforms.

In 2015, Indonesia’s gross domestic product grew by 4.8 per cent. Inflation was 3.35 per cent. Despite low commodity prices, it recorded a trade surplus of US$7.52 billion, and its current-account deficit shrank to 2.1 per cent from 3.1 per cent in 2014.

“It is very important to acknowledge that the global economy will continue to be volatile in the midst of low commodity prices. For an emerging economy like Indonesia’s, that means we cannot rely on the external sector to promote growth. We have to explore all possible policy tools – fiscal, monetary and structural reform,” he said.

Nguyen Thi Hong, the ADB governor of Vietnam, said that country was also going through a transition, with GDP growth reaching 6.7 per cent last year and inflation under control.

Vietnam has been restructuring its banking system, including tackling non-performing loans.

It has also entered free-trade agreements with major trading partners.

“This process is expected to accelerate the structural transformation of Vietnam’s economy, stimulate investment and reinforce the further diversification of Vietnam’s export basket towards manufacturing products,” he said.

Somdy Douangdy, governor of the central bank of Laos, said his country’s economy expanded by 7.4 per cent last year, down from 7.8 per cent in 2014.

Inflation has been adjusted to a downtrend from the decline in global oil prices and moderation in domestic demand.

On the monetary front, the Laotian government has taken a series of measures including issuing tighter regulations on foreign-currency management and widening daily exchange movements to allow flexibility to some extent.

“A stable exchange rate against major foreign currencies will remain as a key priority in order to improve domestic and foreign investors’ confidence and to boost economic output,” he said.

“We also acknowledge the necessity to build up gross international reserves as a cushion against external shocks.”

The government has implemented a mechanism to assist domestic revenue collection, enforce laws and regulations and strengthen public-debt management, he said.

Vongsey Vissoth, Cambodia’s finance minister, said the country continued to sustain its strong growth trend over the past decade with solid expansion of 7 per cent in 2015 as a result of industrial and service-sector expansion.

Agriculture grew by only 0.2 per cent, however, hampered by the unusual drought brought about by El Nino.

Inflation fell to 1.2 per cent compared with 3.9 per cent in 2014 and is projected to be at 1.9 per cent this year. The fiscal deficit narrowed to 3.7 per cent of GDP last year.

The poverty rate was slashed to 14 per cent in 2014 from 53.4 per cent in 2004.

Cambodia’s GDP growth is forecast at 7.1 per cent this year and 6.9 per cent in 2017.

China March exports jump 11.5% on-year: Customs

Published April 15, 2016 by SoClaimon

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/China-March-exports-jump-11-5-on-year-Customs-30283889.html

ECONOMY

Activities at Laem Chabang deep-sea port are set to increase if China's economy recovers.

Activities at Laem Chabang deep-sea port are set to increase if China’s economy recovers.

BEIJING – China’s exports surged 11.5 percent year-on-year in March to $160.8 billion, authorities said Wednesday, in a positive sign for the world’s second-largest economy.

Imports fell for the 17th consecutive month, dropping 7.6 percent on-year to $131.0 billion, Customs said, while the trade surplus leaped to $29.9 billion, nearly 10 times the dollar figure for the same month last year.

The data beat expectations, with a Bloomberg poll of economists predicting a 10 percent increase in exports in dollar terms.

As the world’s second-largest economy and biggest trader in goods China is a pillar of global trade, with its performance impacting supplier and destination countries from Australia to Zambia.

Overseas shipments snapped an eight-month streak of declines that were caused by waning global demand, culminating in a plunge of more than 25 percent in dollar terms in February.

But the figures were helped by having a low basis of comparison, as exports plunged 15.0 percent year-on-year in March 2015.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch said before the release that exports would be “helped mainly by the low base” due to seasonal distortions around the Lunar New Year holiday, with imports lifted by “better investment demand and shallower commodity price deflation”.

“Given the weak external demand, exports may return to normal levels but are unlikely to further improve much,” analysts at CICC said before the report, according to Bloomberg News.

Customs said in a statement that while figures for the first quarter showed a yearly decline, seasonally adjusted monthly data were recovering.

“The import volume of major bulk commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, and copper maintained growth, while the prices of major import commodities remained low,” it said.

During the first three months of the year, China’s trade with the European Union, US and ASEAN all declined.

“There remain obvious obstacles facing China’s foreign trade development,” Customs said.

Customs initially gave the figures in yuan terms, which showed an 18.7 percent rise in exports and imports slipping 1.7 percent.

Customs spokesman Huang Songping attributed March export growth to the low comparison base as well as government policy support.

He said that free-trade agreements, improvement in the ailing manufacturing sector, and a stable yuan exchange rate were additional positive factors.

But he added: “The world economy still faces many uncertainties.”

Risk factors for world trade included major economies’ monetary policies, possible competitive currency devaluations, geopolitical conflicts, and rising protectionism, he said.

“The trade situation remains severe and complicated and the downward pressures are still big,” he told reporters.

“But positive factors that will promote trade are accumulating,” he added, expecting Chinese trade to “stabilise and improve” this year.

– AFP

Philippines, Vietnam to lead region’s growth: WB

Published April 15, 2016 by SoClaimon

ศาสตร์เกษตรดินปุ๋ย : ขอบคุณแหล่งข้อมูล : หนังสือพิมพ์ The Nation

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Philippines-Vietnam-to-lead-regions-growth-WB-30283737.html

ECONOMY

The Philippines and Vietnam are expected to show the strongest growth prospects this year among Southeast Asian nations, with anticipated growth of more than 6 per cent, according to World Bank’s “East Asia and Pacific Economic Update”.

In Indonesia, growth is forecast at 5.1 per cent in 2016 and 5.3 per cent in 2017, contingent on the success of recent reforms and implementation of an ambitious public investment programme.

Thailand’s economic growth is expected to moderate to 2.5 per cent in 2016, from 2.8 per cent in 2015.

In the report, several small economies, including Laos, Mongolia, and Papua New Guinea, will continue to be affected by low commodity prices and weaker external demand. Cambodia’s growth will be slightly below 7 per cent during 2016-18, reflecting weaker prices for agricultural commodities, constrained garment exports, and moderating growth in tourism.

The large Southeast Asian economies are expected to drive growth rate in developing countries in East Asia during 2016-2018.

Compared to 4.7 per cent in 2015, the growth rate excluding China is expected to rise to 4.8 per cent in 2016 and 4.9 per cent in 2017-18, according to World Bank’s “East Asia and Pacific Economic Update”.

Including China, growth in developing East Asia is expected to ease from 6.5 per cent in 2015 to 6.3 per cent in 2016 and 6.2 per cent in 2017-18. The forecast reflects China’s gradual shift to slower, more sustainable growth, expected to be 6.7 per cent in 2016 and 6.5 per cent in 2017, compared with 6.9 per cent in 2015.

However, the outlook for individual countries varies, depending on their trade and financial relationships with high-income economies and China, as well as their dependence on commodity exports.

“Developing East Asia and Pacific continues to contribute strongly to global growth. The region accounted for almost two-fifths of global growth in 2015, more than twice the combined contribution of all other developing regions,” said Victoria Kwakwa, incoming World Bank East Asia and Pacific Regional Vice President. “The region has benefited from careful macroeconomic policies, including efforts to boost domestic revenue in some commodity-exporting countries. But sustaining growth amid challenging global conditions will require continued progress on structural reforms.”

%d bloggers like this: